Diesel stock proxy
32 days
MSO equivalent, 8 Sept 2026. Not a countdown to empty. [S02] [S03]
Minyon Resilience Network / Australian fuel security
Fuel is still flowing.
Replenishment is the risk.
20 September assessment: expensive but functioning supply is the base case. Watch for a diesel-led squeeze as replacement deliveries tighten. October–November is the key planning window; avgas requires separate supplier-level verification.
At a glance
Petrol stock proxy
41 days
Same accounting caveats; not all immediately usable onshore fuel. [S02] [S03]
Avgas coverage
Unknown
Jet-fuel stocks are not an avgas reserve estimate. [S18]
Material supply squeeze
35%
Subjective 90-day probability, scenarios C+D. Not a measured statistic or a local shortage probability.
National risk ≠ local availability.
No verified Minyon / Northern Rivers depot inventory or confirmed delivery feed is connected. Verify essential-use requirements, actual stock and confirmed delivery dates with suppliers.
Three fuels, different vulnerabilities
Diesel is a middle distillate. Petrol and avgas are gasolines; avgas is not Jet A-1. [S18]
Systemic priority
Diesel
Analyst view: highest economy-wide exposure. Watch terminal allocations, qualified cargoes and repeat missed deliveries, not crude alone.
$2.68/L
Five-city average, 16 Sept 2026. Singapore gasoil: US$185/bbl. [S04]
Potential transmission: bulk supply constraints → freight, agriculture and generators → wider cost pressure. This is a risk pathway, not a report of local failure.
Price-led exposure
Petrol
Analyst view: more headline buffer, not immunity. Cost and uneven local distribution are more likely to bite before broad restrictions.
$2.24/L
Five-city average, 16 Sept 2026. Singapore Mogas 95: US$143/bbl. [S04]
Reduce discretionary demand early. Panic buying can strain local distribution even without a national volume deficit.
Low data confidence
Avgas
Viva identifies Geelong as Australia’s only domestic avgas manufacturer. That establishes concentration exposure, not a verified shortage. [S07]
Verify locally
No dependable national coverage figure or price series is available in this assessment. Ask the airfield about usable litres, committed uplift, the next quality-released batch and confirmed delivery.
Viva’s reported broader June restart does not establish current avgas production or stock cover. [S08]
Physical product benchmarks
US$/barrel · rolling seven-weekday averages. Dated Brent is a physical assessment, not Brent futures. [S04]
20 February16 September
Physical Dated Brent
Singapore petrol / Mogas 95
Singapore diesel / gasoil
Low-confidence 2–6 week planning bands: diesel A$2.70–3.30/L; petrol A$2.30–2.80/L. Indicative large-city planning bands under continued disruption; no new excise change or large AUD move. Not confidence intervals, local quotes or aircraft fuel prices.
What happens by 19 December 2026?
Subjective scenario weights, not a calibrated statistical model. Classify D first, then C, then A/B. Reassess as evidence changes; individual weights could move by roughly 10 percentage points.
A · Material easing
Supply remains functional and price pressure meaningfully recedes. Full pre-war normality is not assumed.
Classification rule
No C/D disruption; by 19 Dec Singapore diesel benchmark is at least 15% below the 16 Sep reference for two consecutive weekly reports, with reliable replenishment.
B · Expensive but functioning
Australia pays a premium and experiences intermittent local outages, but no sustained multi-region or critical-sector allocation.
Classification rule
Neither C/D disruption nor the sustained easing criterion is met.
C · Managed regional / sector squeeze
Diesel exposure leads. Some users cannot buy their normal volumes even when willing to pay.
Classification rule
Supplier allocations or repeated delivery curtailments last over 7 days across at least two states, or materially constrain a critical sector; no D event.
D · Severe national restrictions
Access matters more than the posted price. Critical services take precedence.
Classification rule
Mandatory national priority allocation or non-essential fuel-use restrictions last at least 7 days.
65% without sustained material allocation; 35% with a material squeeze, including 10% severe national restrictions. A later price recovery does not erase an earlier qualifying disruption.
What improves the odds?
Two to three weeks of reliable replacement coverage, stable stocks and recovered shipping. Conditional judgement: material-squeeze probability could fall toward 15–20%.
What worsens them?
A verified 20% supply deficit for about a month, diesel stocks below 25 equivalent days and continued bypass disruption. Conditional judgement: material-squeeze probability could rise toward 60% or more. This combination is not established by the snapshot.
The impact clock
Planning windows from 20 September, not shipment ETAs or exhaustion dates.
Now–4 October · 0–2 weeks
Further wholesale-to-retail price pressure and local distribution stress. Existing cargoes and stocks provide the first buffer.
October–early November · 2–6 weeks
The key test: replacement cargoes must become completed deliveries. Watch bypass recovery, Lytton output and qualified product supply.
November–19 December · 6–13 weeks
Persistent deficits consume buffers; downside scenarios bring allocation. Base case remains expensive but functioning supply.
Alternative supply can help, but the right grade, refinery capacity, vessel, insurance and terminal access all have to align. Those logistics assumptions are not evidence that every alternative is unavailable.
The deficit—not a headline stock number—sets the clock
Ongoing replenishment changes the runway. The model below makes those assumptions explicit instead of subtracting one day from stock every calendar day.
National replenishment stress test
Illustration only. Starting at 32 days does not estimate usable stocks today. Supply includes imports and domestic output; demand and stocks use normal-demand equivalents. The 15-day marker is an analyst illustration, not an official trigger.
17.0 stock-day equivalents remain after 60 days.
The illustrative 15-day marker is reached after 68.0 days if assumptions persist.
Exact values and model limits
| Elapsed | Remaining |
|---|---|
| 0 days | 32.0 |
| 30 days | 24.5 |
| 60 days | 17.0 |
| 90 days | 9.5 |
Stock = initial + days × (supply% − demand%) / 100, floored at zero. Zero means the assumptions cannot continue without reduced consumption or more supply. No tank-capacity cap is modelled; an increasing curve is not unlimited storage. The model ignores local distribution bottlenecks, inaccessible inventory and changing demand.
Inflection points worth watching
Thresholds below are analyst monitoring markers, not official emergency triggers. Outcomes must be reassessed against fresh evidence.
| Signal | Context | Worsening | Improving |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi bypass / October cargoes | Reported pipeline damage and cancellations; repair timing uncertain. [S05] | Further cancelled loadings or impaired throughput into October. | Completed loadings and verified export recovery. |
| Australian replacement coverage | Forward orders are not the same as discharged cargoes. [S02] | Verified total supply below 90% of normal demand for two weeks. | Confirmed arrivals plus domestic output consistently cover consumption. |
| Diesel stock trend | Latest snapshot: 32 equivalent days on 8 September. [S17] | Fall of 3+ days over two weekly updates; below 25 and still falling. | Stable or rising stocks without deferring customer deliveries. |
| Persistent distribution failures | Use persistence and bulk allocations, not one isolated outage. [S02] | Over 3% of sites affected for a week, or sustained multi-region bulk allocations. | Fewer repeat outages and reliable critical-sector deliveries. |
| Refineries and avgas batches | Product-specific dispatches matter more than a general restart. [S08] | Delayed refinery return or missed quality-released avgas batch. | Confirmed output and deliveries by fuel grade. |
| 30 September / 1 October policy junction | Published MSO and fuel-quality settings expire or transition; check later notices. [S10] | Tighter qualified supply without sufficient compliant replacement cargoes. | Clear rules and adequate compliant deliveries. |
Policy transitions are watchpoints, not predicted cliffs. Verify notices after this assessment before making operational decisions. [S10] [S11]
Dated diesel-outage snapshot
Observed 11 Sept 2026. Includes sites out of both fuels. Not volume-weighted, not proof of persistence, and not a current station locator. [S02]
Published state denominators total 8,188, whereas the published national denominator is 8,118. National percentage uses the published national count; this discrepancy is not silently reconciled.
What this means for Minyon and the Northern Rivers
Lismore diesel price feed
Existing NSW FuelCheck connection · 15 km around Lismore · separate from the dated national assessment.
Loading the existing local price feed…
Price is not proof of stock availability. Petrol and avgas local feeds are not connected here. No national value is used as a local fallback.
Local fuel continuity
Enter your own usable stock and essential consumption. No local values are assumed. Inputs stay in this page and are not saved or sent to the server.
Enter non-negative stock/reserve and positive daily use. Reserve cannot exceed usable stock.
A planned delivery is not guaranteed and is not added to stock here. Confirm usable litres, grade, delivery date and supplier allocation directly. Use suitable lawful storage; avoid panic purchasing.
Community readiness
Map essential transport and generator demand. Verify usable stocks and delivery dates. Identify genuinely separate supply routes; two distributors can depend on one terminal.
Businesses and bulk users
Check committed litres, allocation clauses, lead times and priority arrangements. A 25–50% increase over your own delivered quote is a useful stress-budget test, not a prediction.
Avgas operators
Confirm actual airfield fuel before commitments. Verify approved grade and alternate supply points; national jet-fuel reassurance does not establish avgas availability.
Do not infer community supplies from national stocks or a retail price feed. Fuel-storage and aircraft-operating decisions require the relevant qualified advice and approved procedures.
Evidence, assumptions and publication status
This page ports the 20 September assessment into the community dashboard. It is editorial analysis, not an official warning service. Sources and observations retain their original dates; none are silently relabelled as live.
MSO coverage differs from immediately accessible finished fuel and from IEA net-import-day measures. Do not double-count cargoes and stocks. Scenario weights and logistics windows are judgement calls. Local inventory and avgas coverage remain data gaps. The shared snapshot is available as a read-only API for other dashboard components.
S01 · IEA — Oil Market Report, September 2026 ↗
2026-09-11 · Primary / global assessment
August observations and IEA forecasts; not a 20 September physical-flow feed.
S02 · Australian Government — Fuel statistics ↗
2026-09-08 / 11 · Primary / Australian dashboard
Stocks: 8 Sep. Ships and retail outages: 11 Sep. Forward orders include not-yet-departed cargoes. State site counts total 8,188; the source reports 8,118 nationally. This review preserves that discrepancy. Prices superseded by S04.
S03 · DCCEEW — Measures of liquid fuel stocks ↗
2026-04-22 · Primary / methodology
MSO is broader than immediately usable onshore finished product; IEA net-import-day measures are not directly comparable.
S04 · ACCC — Weekly fuel price monitoring, 18 September ↗
2026-09-18 · Primary / observed prices
Pump observations: 16 Sep. Benchmarks: rolling seven-weekday averages ending 16 Sep. Tables visually checked. Executive summary and city values support petrol 224.2 c/L; one later paragraph transposes this to 222.4.
S05 · Reuters — Saudi pipeline disruption and October cargoes ↗
2026-09-18 · Secondary / developing event
Reuters relays Bloomberg reporting. Cancellations and repair timing are reported, not independently confirmed here by Aramco.
S06 · Reuters — Hormuz shipping traffic ↗
2026-09-18 · Secondary / shipping data
Counts commodity vessels, not oil-only cargoes. AIS-dark movements can be missed; no conversion of counts into oil volumes.
S07 · Viva Energy — Aviation supply ↗
accessed 2026-09-20 · Primary / supplier
Identifies Viva as Australia’s only domestic avgas manufacturer. Not a current avgas production-rate or inventory disclosure.
S08 · Viva Energy — Half-year results announcement ↗
2026-08-25 · Primary / company disclosure
Reports June restart of RCCU and associated units after April incident. Does not establish current avgas batch production or stock cover.
S09 · Reuters — Ampol Lytton refining update ↗
2026-07-30 · Secondary / company reporting
Reported August–October maintenance window; current return date needs confirmation. S02 says replacement supply is secured.
S10 · DCCEEW — Temporary fuel quality changes ↗
page updated 2026-04-29 · Primary / published policy
Petrol sulfur and diesel flash-point flexibilities have published September expiry/transition dates. No later extension verified in this review.
S11 · Minister Bowen — MSO flexibility extension ↗
2026-05-30 · Primary / published policy
20% baseline petrol/diesel MSO relaxation through 30 September, conditional on supply commitments. This is not 20% extra physical fuel.
S12 · Australian Government — National Fuel Security Plan ↗
accessed 2026-09-20 · Primary / response framework
Level 2 current. Level 3 targeted measures is not synonymous with nationwide rationing; Level 4 protects critical services.
S13 · Financial Times — G7 considers further reserve action ↗
2026-09-19 · Secondary / developing policy
Discussion of further releases is not an approved, loaded or discharged cargo.
S14 · DCCEEW — Fuel security and resilience package consultation ↗
consultation closed 2026-09-15 · Primary / proposed measures
New reserve/storage policy should not be counted as available fuel today.
S15 · Reuters — Australian energy minister’s Saudi visit ↗
2026-09-15 · Secondary / import exposure
Reports 84% of petroleum products imported in 2025; not a fuel-specific share or a precise current total-supply fraction.
S16 · ACCC — Weekly fuel price monitoring, 11 September ↗
2026-09-11 · Primary / historical comparison
Used for the 9 September snapshot and checks on the 20 February / 31 March comparison.
S17 · DCCEEW — MSO statistics ↗
last update verified 2026-09-11 · Primary / stock series
Latest point verified here remains 8 September, not an estimate of stocks on 20 September.
S18 · Viva Energy — Aviation fuel grades ↗
accessed 2026-09-20 · Primary / product definitions
Avgas is aviation gasoline; Jet A-1 is kerosene. They are not interchangeable.
Assessment 20 Sept 2026 · horizon ends 19 Dec 2026. Personal calculator inputs are not persisted. Source links and the local price feed require network access. The twice-weekly briefing schedule does not automatically publish to this website.