{"schema_version":1,"assessment_date":"2026-09-20","forecast_end":"2026-12-19","live":false,"publication_mode":"editorial_snapshot","update_note":"Imported assessment: source revalidation pending. Scheduled twice-weekly chat briefings do not automatically update this website; a reviewed repository update is required. Refreshing this page does not create a new observation.","local_availability":{"status":"unknown","observation_date":null,"note":"No verified Minyon / Northern Rivers depot inventory or confirmed delivery feed is connected."},"probability_method":"Subjective scenario weights, not a calibrated statistical model. Classify D first, then C, then A/B. Reassess as evidence changes; individual weights could move by roughly 10 percentage points.","stocks":{"observation_date":"2026-09-08","definition":"MSO normal-consumption-equivalent days; includes some EEZ and refinery-equivalent stocks. Not all ready-to-deliver onshore fuel.","petrol_days":41,"diesel_days":32,"jet_days":30,"avgas_days":null,"petrol_ml":1763,"diesel_ml":2949,"jet_ml":827},"retail_prices":[{"date":"2026-02-20","petrol_aud_l":1.709,"diesel_aud_l":1.766},{"date":"2026-03-31","petrol_aud_l":2.572,"diesel_aud_l":3.224},{"date":"2026-09-09","petrol_aud_l":2.099,"diesel_aud_l":2.537},{"date":"2026-09-16","petrol_aud_l":2.242,"diesel_aud_l":2.679}],"benchmarks":[{"date":"2026-02-20","dated_brent_usd_bbl":73,"singapore_petrol_usd_bbl":76,"singapore_diesel_usd_bbl":89},{"date":"2026-03-31","dated_brent_usd_bbl":123,"singapore_petrol_usd_bbl":144,"singapore_diesel_usd_bbl":231},{"date":"2026-09-09","dated_brent_usd_bbl":107,"singapore_petrol_usd_bbl":130,"singapore_diesel_usd_bbl":168},{"date":"2026-09-16","dated_brent_usd_bbl":132,"singapore_petrol_usd_bbl":143,"singapore_diesel_usd_bbl":185}],"outages":[{"state":"ACT","sites":65,"petrol_only_out":1,"diesel_only_out":0,"both_out":0,"diesel_affected":0,"diesel_affected_pct":0},{"state":"NSW","sites":2403,"petrol_only_out":2,"diesel_only_out":6,"both_out":3,"diesel_affected":9,"diesel_affected_pct":0.37453183520599254},{"state":"VIC","sites":1700,"petrol_only_out":1,"diesel_only_out":2,"both_out":8,"diesel_affected":10,"diesel_affected_pct":0.5882352941176471},{"state":"QLD","sites":1800,"petrol_only_out":12,"diesel_only_out":14,"both_out":12,"diesel_affected":26,"diesel_affected_pct":1.4444444444444444},{"state":"SA","sites":700,"petrol_only_out":1,"diesel_only_out":6,"both_out":9,"diesel_affected":15,"diesel_affected_pct":2.142857142857143},{"state":"TAS","sites":308,"petrol_only_out":0,"diesel_only_out":1,"both_out":1,"diesel_affected":2,"diesel_affected_pct":0.6493506493506493},{"state":"NT","sites":210,"petrol_only_out":0,"diesel_only_out":0,"both_out":0,"diesel_affected":0,"diesel_affected_pct":0},{"state":"WA","sites":1002,"petrol_only_out":0,"diesel_only_out":3,"both_out":3,"diesel_affected":6,"diesel_affected_pct":0.5988023952095808}],"outage_date":"2026-09-11","reported_national_sites":8118,"summed_state_sites":8188,"outage_quality_note":"Published state denominators total 8,188, whereas the published national denominator is 8,118. National percentage uses the published national count; this discrepancy is not silently reconciled.","scenarios":[{"id":"A","name":"Material easing","probability_pct":20,"condition":"No C/D disruption; by 19 Dec Singapore diesel benchmark is at least 15% below the 16 Sep reference for two consecutive weekly reports, with reliable replenishment.","meaning":"Supply remains functional and price pressure meaningfully recedes. Full pre-war normality is not assumed."},{"id":"B","name":"Expensive but functioning","probability_pct":45,"condition":"Neither C/D disruption nor the sustained easing criterion is met.","meaning":"Australia pays a premium and experiences intermittent local outages, but no sustained multi-region or critical-sector allocation."},{"id":"C","name":"Managed regional / sector squeeze","probability_pct":25,"condition":"Supplier allocations or repeated delivery curtailments last over 7 days across at least two states, or materially constrain a critical sector; no D event.","meaning":"Diesel exposure leads. Some users cannot buy their normal volumes even when willing to pay."},{"id":"D","name":"Severe national restrictions","probability_pct":10,"condition":"Mandatory national priority allocation or non-essential fuel-use restrictions last at least 7 days.","meaning":"Access matters more than the posted price. Critical services take precedence."}],"stress_model":{"formula":"stock_days = initial_stock_days + elapsed_days * (supply_fraction - demand_fraction)","initial_stock_days":32,"initial_is_hypothetical":true,"supply_fractions":[1,0.9,0.75,0.6],"demand_fraction":1,"analyst_stress_marker_days":15,"marker_is_official":false},"price_planning_bands":{"horizon":"next 2–6 weeks","petrol_aud_l":[2.3,2.8],"diesel_aud_l":[2.7,3.3],"confidence":"low","assumptions":"Indicative large-city planning bands under continued disruption; no new excise change or large AUD move. Not confidence intervals, local quotes or aircraft fuel prices."},"sources":[{"id":"S01","name":"IEA — Oil Market Report, September 2026","date":"2026-09-11","url":"https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-september-2026","type":"Primary / global assessment","note":"August observations and IEA forecasts; not a 20 September physical-flow feed."},{"id":"S02","name":"Australian Government — Fuel statistics","date":"2026-09-08 / 11","url":"https://fuelplan.gov.au/fuel-statistics","type":"Primary / Australian dashboard","note":"Stocks: 8 Sep. Ships and retail outages: 11 Sep. Forward orders include not-yet-departed cargoes. State site counts total 8,188; the source reports 8,118 nationally. This review preserves that discrepancy. Prices superseded by S04."},{"id":"S03","name":"DCCEEW — Measures of liquid fuel stocks","date":"2026-04-22","url":"https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/security/australias-fuel-security/measures-of-liquid-fuel-stocks","type":"Primary / methodology","note":"MSO is broader than immediately usable onshore finished product; IEA net-import-day measures are not directly comparable."},{"id":"S04","name":"ACCC — Weekly fuel price monitoring, 18 September","date":"2026-09-18","url":"https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/weekly-fuel-price-monitoring-report-18-september-2026.pdf","type":"Primary / observed prices","note":"Pump observations: 16 Sep. Benchmarks: rolling seven-weekday averages ending 16 Sep. Tables visually checked. Executive summary and city values support petrol 224.2 c/L; one later paragraph transposes this to 222.4."},{"id":"S05","name":"Reuters — Saudi pipeline disruption and October cargoes","date":"2026-09-18","url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/aramco-halts-october-crude-deliveries-some-european-refiners-after-pipeline-2026-09-18/","type":"Secondary / developing event","note":"Reuters relays Bloomberg reporting. Cancellations and repair timing are reported, not independently confirmed here by Aramco."},{"id":"S06","name":"Reuters — Hormuz shipping traffic","date":"2026-09-18","url":"https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/shipping-traffic-via-strait-hormuz-stays-below-10-day-average-data-shows-2026-09-18/","type":"Secondary / shipping data","note":"Counts commodity vessels, not oil-only cargoes. AIS-dark movements can be missed; no conversion of counts into oil volumes."},{"id":"S07","name":"Viva Energy — Aviation supply","date":"accessed 2026-09-20","url":"https://www.vivaenergy.com.au/business/aviation","type":"Primary / supplier","note":"Identifies Viva as Australia’s only domestic avgas manufacturer. Not a current avgas production-rate or inventory disclosure."},{"id":"S08","name":"Viva Energy — Half-year results announcement","date":"2026-08-25","url":"https://www.vivaenergy.com.au/ArticleDocuments/1492/Announcement.pdf.aspx","type":"Primary / company disclosure","note":"Reports June restart of RCCU and associated units after April incident. Does not establish current avgas batch production or stock cover."},{"id":"S09","name":"Reuters — Ampol Lytton refining update","date":"2026-07-30","url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ampols-lytton-quarterly-refining-margin-more-than-triples-higher-oil-prices-2026-07-30/","type":"Secondary / company reporting","note":"Reported August–October maintenance window; current return date needs confirmation. S02 says replacement supply is secured."},{"id":"S10","name":"DCCEEW — Temporary fuel quality changes","date":"page updated 2026-04-29","url":"https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/regulating-fuel-quality","type":"Primary / published policy","note":"Petrol sulfur and diesel flash-point flexibilities have published September expiry/transition dates. No later extension verified in this review."},{"id":"S11","name":"Minister Bowen — MSO flexibility extension","date":"2026-05-30","url":"https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/government-maintains-fuel-security","type":"Primary / published policy","note":"20% baseline petrol/diesel MSO relaxation through 30 September, conditional on supply commitments. This is not 20% extra physical fuel."},{"id":"S12","name":"Australian Government — National Fuel Security Plan","date":"accessed 2026-09-20","url":"https://fuelplan.gov.au/resources/national-fuel-security-plan","type":"Primary / response framework","note":"Level 2 current. Level 3 targeted measures is not synonymous with nationwide rationing; Level 4 protects critical services."},{"id":"S13","name":"Financial Times — G7 considers further reserve action","date":"2026-09-19","url":"https://www.ft.com/content/31c53c3c-5cc1-4248-98dc-68fc8956e8cc","type":"Secondary / developing policy","note":"Discussion of further releases is not an approved, loaded or discharged cargo."},{"id":"S14","name":"DCCEEW — Fuel security and resilience package consultation","date":"consultation closed 2026-09-15","url":"https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/australias-fuel-security-and-resilience-package","type":"Primary / proposed measures","note":"New reserve/storage policy should not be counted as available fuel today."},{"id":"S15","name":"Reuters — Australian energy minister’s Saudi visit","date":"2026-09-15","url":"https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/australias-energy-minister-visit-saudi-arabia-middle-east-conflict-escalates-2026-09-15/","type":"Secondary / import exposure","note":"Reports 84% of petroleum products imported in 2025; not a fuel-specific share or a precise current total-supply fraction."},{"id":"S16","name":"ACCC — Weekly fuel price monitoring, 11 September","date":"2026-09-11","url":"https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/weekly-fuel-price-monitoring-report-11-september-2026.pdf","type":"Primary / historical comparison","note":"Used for the 9 September snapshot and checks on the 20 February / 31 March comparison."},{"id":"S17","name":"DCCEEW — MSO statistics","date":"last update verified 2026-09-11","url":"https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/security/australias-fuel-security/minimum-stockholding-obligation/statistics","type":"Primary / stock series","note":"Latest point verified here remains 8 September, not an estimate of stocks on 20 September."},{"id":"S18","name":"Viva Energy — Aviation fuel grades","date":"accessed 2026-09-20","url":"https://www.vivaenergy.com.au/business/aviation/aviation-fuels","type":"Primary / product definitions","note":"Avgas is aviation gasoline; Jet A-1 is kerosene. They are not interchangeable."}],"verification_status":"requires_source_revalidation","verification_label":"Imported assessment — source revalidation pending","verification_note":"These figures and source notes were imported from the 20 September assessment. Integration rechecks returned older government snapshots, and the referenced September ACCC report could not be retrieved. This does not establish that the September figures are wrong, but they have not been independently reconfirmed for this publication. Check original sources and suppliers before operational use."}